Friday, November 04, 2005

Pocket Pairs in a Limit cap or not to cap?

Had a guy at $0.50/$1 today tear me a new one when I reraised with 10 10 vs his KK and another players J J. My 10 hit the flop and they gladly capped it every round to the end.

So here is my question. I prefer to cap it pre-flop and then get away if I don't hit my set if the table is full of aggressive players (which this table was). If I miss, I'm out the $2. If I hit, then I know I'm going to get paid out, usually a lot.

What's your thoughts? Hitting trips on the flop is about 7.5 to 1. I'm going to pay out $15 (7.5 times 2) to win a minimum of $6 (worst case, and obvoiusly -EV). Most of my cases have been up against 1-3 players that cap it to the end (1 pays out $12, 3 pays out $36, so an average of $24, now a +EV play)

Anyone have other thoughts?

Here's the HH:

FullTiltPoker Game #277753137: Table Bradley - $0.50/$1 - Limit Hold'em - 18:26:54 ET - 2005/11/04
Seat 1: MYB ($32.50)
Seat 2: jacksorbeter ($12)
Seat 3: Terry Posey ($12.50)
Seat 4: IlliniFan ($20.25)
Seat 5: Series7_Hunter ($9.50)
Seat 6: 24TILT7 ($26)
Seat 7: Solver ($13.25)
Seat 8: mwelch370 ($4)
Seat 9: Mildew68 ($21)
IlliniFan posts the small blind of $0.25
Series7_Hunter posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to IlliniFan [Tc Ts]
24TILT7 folds
Solver folds
mwelch370 raises to $1
Mildew68 folds
MYB folds
jacksorbeter raises to $1.50
Terry Posey folds
IlliniFan raises to $2
Series7_Hunter folds
mwelch370 calls $1
jacksorbeter calls $0.50
*** FLOP *** [2d 3h Td]
IlliniFan checks
mwelch370 checks
jacksorbeter bets $0.50
IlliniFan raises to $1
mwelch370 calls $1
jacksorbeter raises to $1.50
IlliniFan raises to $2
mwelch370 calls $1, and is all in
jacksorbeter calls $0.50
*** TURN *** [2d 3h Td] [8c]
IlliniFan bets $1
jacksorbeter raises to $2
IlliniFan raises to $3
jacksorbeter raises to $4
IlliniFan calls $1
*** RIVER *** [2d 3h Td 8c] [As]
IlliniFan bets $1
jacksorbeter calls $1
*** SHOW DOWN ***
IlliniFan shows [Tc Ts] (three of a kind, Tens)
jacksorbeter mucks
IlliniFan wins the side pot ($9.50) with three of a kind, Tens
mwelch370 shows [Js Jd] (a pair of Jacks)
IlliniFan wins the main pot ($12) with three of a kind, Tens
mwelch370 is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $22.50 Main pot $12.50. Side pot $10. | Rake $1
Board: [2d 3h Td 8c As]
Seat 1: MYB didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: jacksorbeter mucked [Kh Ks] - a pair of Kings
Seat 3: Terry Posey (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: IlliniFan (small blind) showed [Tc Ts] and won ($21.50) with three of a kind, Tens
Seat 5: Series7_Hunter (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: 24TILT7 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: Solver didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: mwelch370 showed [Js Jd] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 9: Mildew68 didn't bet (folded)


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